In broad terms 2019 was a positive year for the Naval Service, building on the successes of 2018. The political turmoil that enveloped Westminster left significant decisions about the future on hold but, apart from events in the Arabian Gulf, it was mostly business as usual.
The year began with the RN being called on to help patrol the English Channel in response to a rise in the number of illegal immigrants attempting to cross from France. HMS Mersey was deployed for a few weeks to carry out the patrols. Border Force vessels are far cheaper to operate than naval assets and better suited to this task, although the UKBF struggled to get two of its cutters back from the Mediterranean where they had been ‘forward-deployed’. HMS Argyll returned from a successful 9-month deployment to the Pacific region and hit the headlines by rescuing 27 merchant seaman from a blazing ship in very challenging conditions in the Bay of Biscay.
2019 marked 50 years of Operation Relentless comprising more than 350 patrols. The RN’s achievement of maintaining the unbroken Continuous At Sea [Nuclear] Deterrent and was rightly described as by the new First Sea Lord as “a staggering achievement” which has involved thousands of submariners, civil servants and industrial workers.
Held in May and June, Exercise Baltic Protector was the largest maritime exercise in the Baltic for several decades. This was the first major test of the NATO Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) and involved 4,000 personnel and 40 ships led by the UK Littoral Strike Group commander in HMS Albion. The force also joined exercise BALTOPS 2019 before a final phase working with Lithuanian, Estonian and Latvian forces. This kind of demonstration of NATO (and other nations) interoperability has a genuine deterrent effect for its target audience despite Trump and Macron’s clumsy diplomacy that may appear to undermine the alliance.
Gulf interlude
On 4th July the tanker MV Grace 1 carrying oil from Iran to Syria was impounded in Gibraltar waters. This action increased the threat from Iran to British shipping in the Gulf and put RN warship numbers in the spotlight. Despite having maintained a surface escort presence in the Gulf, almost continuously since 1980, only HMS Montrose was immediately ready to respond. Although driving off one attempt to capture a merchant vessel, inevitably a single frigate could not be everywhere at once. The MV Stena Impero was taken by Iran on 12th July and was only released after the MV Grace 1 was allowed to leave Gibraltar on August 15, where she completed her journey to Syria.
The strategic thinking behind this embarrassing episode seems to have been confused and compounded by a lack of preparation for the inevitable Iranian response. For its part, the RN did a valiant job coping with the emerging situation in the Gulf. HMS Duncan was rapidly redeployed from the Black Sea and HMS Kent was given an unscheduled Gulf trip. No further Iranian interference has occurred and by October, over 7 million tonnes of merchant shipping had been escorted through the Strait of Hormuz by the RN. HMS Defender and HMS Montrose remain in the Gulf at the close of the year but until warship availability improves, the RN will be hard-pressed if it must sustain more than one escort in the region permanently.
CEPP momentum building
2019 proved to be a very satisfactory year in the development of Carrier Enabled Power Projection (CEPP). Despite a significant internal flood which was quickly rectified, HMS Queen Elizabeth completed operational Sea Training and sailed on the Westlant 19 Deployment. The first UK jets landed onboard and work was begun on learning to fly the aircraft operationally from the carrier. All of the tests were passed and various benchmarks achieved during this operational testing phase. Supported by HMS Dragon, HMS Northumberland and RFA Tideforce, the deployment provided an insight into how the future UK carrier strike will take shape. This was the first opportunity for a Type 45 destroyer to develop air defence tactics with the carrier and act as fighter controller with F-35s. The ships also exercised with the US Navy and US Marine Corps jets joined the UK aircraft onboard the carrier. The deployment culminated in a highly successful trade and diplomatic visit to Annapolis before the group returned home in December.
HMS Prince of Wales completed her initial sea trials two weeks ahead of schedule and arrived in Portsmouth for the first time on 16 November. She formally commissioned on 10th December and the RN is now a “two carrier navy”, the first of which should be fully operational in May 2021.
Progress in acquisition
Besides the arrival of HMS Prince of Wales, the selection of the Babcock/Thales Arrowhead-140 as the winner of the Type 31 frigate competition was the most significant acquisition story of the year. The choice of Arrowhead has been welcomed as offering a large and proven platform with plenty of space for upgrades. (Following the announcement, we published the most detailed description of the RN Type 31 equipment fit currently in the public domain). Although progress on the project has been relatively rapid, it is now very clear that the first vessel will not be ready to replace HMS Argyll when she is due out of service in 2023. Either Argyll and a few of the older frigates will have to be run on well beyond their planned OSD or frigate numbers will dip.
The 26 frigate programme is progressing smoothly, if slowly. HMS Glasgow will be launched into the Clyde at the end of next year and the first steel was cut for the second ship, HMS Cardiff, in August. After a shaky start for the Batch II OPVs, the serious issues with the lead ship, HMS Forth, have been resolved and she is about to take over as Falkland Islands Patrol Vessel. Ship 2, HMS Medway, commissioned in September and ship 3, HMS Trent was accepted by the RN in December.
Work was started on the second Dreadnought class submarine, HMS Valiant, in September. So far work on these 17,200-tonne boats is described as “on budget and on schedule” but very little detail of their design and construction process has been made public. While the project is fully justified as the ultimate insurance policy, the £31Bn cost is increasingly perceived as submarines taking “a disproportionate share of the defence budget”. There is an increasingly strong case for Dreadnought to be funded directly by Treasury.
In February 2019, the then Defence Minister, Gavin Williamson, announced the plan to rapidly procure two Future Littoral Strike Ships (FLSS). Whether FLSS will survive political and budget challenges and remain an RN priority is unclear.
The Fleet Air Arm continued to take deliveries of the excellent Merlin Mk4 helicopter (upgraded former Mk3 airframes) and the first CROWSNEST-equipped Merlin took to the skies to begin flying trials. The Wildcat helicopter will see a significant uplift in capability next year as the Sea Venom and Martlett (LMM) missiles are due to enter service.
Availability and manpower restrain ambition
This year a series of delays to refit projects became a growing cause for concern. Nuclear deterrent submarine HMS Vanguard will not return to the fleet as scheduled because of serious problems during her long overhaul and refuelling at Devonport. Delivery of the vitally important 4th Astute-class submarine HMS Audacious will be at least 18 months late with impacts on the programme for boats 5-7. The first Type 45 destroyer to undergo engine upgrades is at least 6 months behind schedule and the Type 23 frigate life extension programme has also been delayed. A series of over-running RFA vessel refits rounds off an unhealthy list of upkeep issues that are counter to the Defence Secretary’s directive to improve the availability of the assets the RN already has. Naval sources say expenditure on the aircraft carriers is not the underlying cause of these failures and the fault lies mainly with contractors and DE&S.
At least naval recruitment was buoyant with a 20% increase in new entrants over last year. The far bigger challenge of retaining experienced technical personnel remains and in October the service was still 1,610 people short of its intended strength.
Unsettled outlook?
The new First Sea Lord Admiral Tony Radakin took over in June and there are already signs that he is accelerating the pace of change, taking the transformation programme, that was begun by his predecessor much further. The removal of 5 Rear Admiral posts and a 50% reduction in personnel at NCHQ will free up extra funds and more personnel for the frontline. It will also help address the perception that the RN leadership structure is top-heavy and there has been rank inflation for roles that could be performed by less senior officers.
Other changes will see the Fleet Commander take direct responsibility for support and training, and the Devonport and Portsmouth Flotillas merged. Another frigate or destroyer will adopt the double crewing model already used for HMS Montrose to increase availability (possibly forward-deployed in Singapore). Amphibious warfare and the Royal Marines doctrine are evolving under the Future Commando Force initiative. The use of Cyber, AI, Big Data and Unmanned technologies in the RN continue to be explored on a modest scale through a variety of projects.
The election result should bring a measure of stability back to government which will come as a relief. The defence interests of the UK may have dodged the Corbyn bullet but taken an SNP shot to the head. The existential threat of an independent Scotland won’t go away and may become another disruptive and expensive factor in future defence planning. The full impact of Brexit, for better or worse is still yet to be understood. The initial effects will likely be felt by the RN when policing the fishing grounds which could become a much more complex job, depending on negotiations in Brussels.
Three out of four of the ministerial team in charge of the MoD are ex-Army. Of the 45 MPs in the new Parliament who have served in the forces, the majority are former soldiers. Many of these politicians will prove to be great advocates for the RN but there are plenty within the Army who dislike the aircraft carriers. Influential adviser to the Prime Minister, Dominic Cummings is also known to be gunning for the carrier programme and previously made the wild claim that “A teenager will be able to deploy a drone from their smartphone to sink one of these multibillion-dollar platforms”. Just as the carrier project is about to start returning the great investment that has been made, the RN may be forced into a new battle with elements within Westminster and Whitehall to ensure their future.
Cummings also seems keen to join a succession of politicians and bureaucrats who arrived, like Jesus come to clear the Temple of sinners, with grand plans to “sort out the procurement mess at the MoD”. While change is certainly needed, the reformers usually underestimate just what a complex beast they are dealing with. In particular, they may not realise just how fragile the defence-industrial base has become and how few options there are for rapid transformation.
The ‘Modernising Defence Programme’ review started in 2017 was lost in the political maelstrom but Boris Johnson has announced it will be superseded by SDSR 2020 which will “seek to modernise defence capabilities while reducing costs in the long term”. This is ominous, further modernisation is urgent but should not be used as a fig leaf to hide budget-driven reductions in overall capability. The Tories promised in their election manifesto to “increase defence spending by least 0.5% above inflation every year of the new Parliament”. Only a sustained increase in spending at this level or above will avert cuts as there are still many £Billions of unfunded projects in the Equipment Plan which can’t be met by so-called ‘efficiencies’. In 2020 the RN must continue its own transformation work and hope that those guiding any new defence review are informed by sound grand strategy with maritime power at its core.
Thank you for another year of accurate and informative work!
The Devonport and Portsmouth flotillas are merging? How on Earth will that work? Unless they’re on about closing Devonport, having ships based in two different places is going to require them to be administered separately, even if you include them all in a single “Surface Flotilla” or whatever name they give it.
The merging of the flotillas is just an administrative change to reduce support staff. Ships basing arrangements will remain the same.
Why will the ships at two bases need to be administer separately? With modern IT there is no need for duplicated teams of people.
Perhaps poor phrasing on my part. When I say “administered separately”, I mean administered as separate entities. Having two separate bases full of different classes of ships means they’re going to have different requirements. Having one team administer both doesn’t change the fact that they’re still going to be functionally separate.
My concern is Members of The Defence Department & Ministry of Defence three of the Ministers are EX- Army no RN or RAF, we are an Island Nation we need The Royal Navy to protect our interests and around the World
Let those Ministers show how capable they are sorting out the Armys issues and procurement procrastination before they are let loose on the other services. Also remember the current Chief of Defence, General Carter ,and principal adviser to the Government is an Army general as well.
The only relief is the Vice Chief, who would be more directly involved in procurement (? ) is Admiral Tim Fraser, his immediate predecessor was Royal Marine General Messenger, who should have got the top job but was from the ‘wrong service’- hes retired now but is only 57.
Maybe if they gave the army consistent direction and a budget that allowed it to do everything that is being asked of it instead of being forced to reorganise itself every 2-3 years something would happen.
Please the army is getting horrifically short shrift compared to the Navy.
I don’t know if you’re aware or not but for decades now each service has received roughly 1/3 of the non nuclear deterrent defence budget. In any given year one service may get 31 or 32%. But over 4 or 5 years it is as near as makes no difference. How the Army or anyone else is getting short shrift from the Navy is baffling to say the least. Jealousy perhaps ?
No the Navy simply has a consitent direction from the government and a budget that matches what is being asked of it. The Army keeps getting conflicting requirements and nowhere near the budget required to execute what is being asked of it. Also it’s quite nice that you deliberately leave the nuclear deterrent out to balance the stats your way. Also believe it or not simply dividing the budget by 3 and giving everyone an equal slice does not necessarily translate to “fair distribution.”
I get this is save the royal navy and people like you need to align anything that doesn’t praise the navy as some sort of emotional reaction but please.
The Navy chiefs are responsible for their budget as the RAF and Army chiefs are responsible for theirs. If there’s any shortfall I’d suggest it’s their job to balance the two. Blaming others might have it’s attractions for the people concerned but has no basis in reality. P.S.
Manpower growth/retention & ship availability are the dull but vital areas of focus for the Royal Navy in 2020. It’s hard to argue with Ben Wallace and others when they point out calls for more ships will continue to fall on deaf ears whilst the RN cannot sufficiently crew and maintain the ones it has.
All of the delays are of concern but the Astute program is the one that would most worry me due to the lack of information on the issues as well as the vital need to protect the carrier-group, the CASD whilst tracking Russian subs around The UK all at the same time. Any further delays could seriously result in a fleet of 4-5 SSN’s for the next decade as the last Trafalgar’s retire – and it would extremely dangerous to operate in The South China Sea or North Atlantic without accompanying Astute’s to counter Chinese or Russian subs.
2020 should see the first growth of the fleet in a very long time as the OPV force expands. We know 1 will be deployed to The West Indies and it seems likely a T23, or a River, or both will be forward based in Singapore as well. It’ll be really interesting to see how they operate and what utility they bring to the respective regions.
I can’t see the OPV’s doing much except showing the flag. Without an embarked helicopter they are of little practical use in SAR, disaster relief, maritime interdiction, or anti-piracy. A T23 forward deployed in Singapore would make sense though.
Flying the flag is important in The West Indies given we still have 5 territories there. They can also carry a decent amount of humanitarian aid and if only we’d invest in some helicopter drones (housed in small dog kennel hangars) they’d also be useful in the surveillance and anti-narcotics roles. Although I of course agree a Bay is in many ways a better choice. The 2nd double-crewed T23 will either go to The Gulf or Singapore. It’ll most likely be another GP version without Type 2087 or a Merlin which is ok in the shallow, constricted waters of The Gulf and perhaps in The Malacca Straits as well, but a ASW frigate adds the real worth if the plan is to project presence in The South China Sea.
Many of the helicopter drones are designed to be operated & maintained out of dedicated ISO containers on or with unimpeded access to the flight deck. Should not be a problem with a B2 River.
We just need to buy some instead of experimenting every year and never actually purchasing
I think the West Indies should be a very low priority except for disaster relief preparations. It’s a peaceful part of the world except for the Drug crime which the US is keen to look after. A River is poor for both crime (no chopper) and relief. A Bay is still the best class for the job.
I think the River class would make good Fleet Tenders. By this I mean when a task force is deployed they can range ahead of the task force ensuring security of anchorages etc with embarked marines etc. They may need upgrading with certain equipment and a bigger gun say 57mm Bofors may be a place to start.
Bigger gun only useful for the range – out to 16km. Otherwise for anchorages and protecting out to 5km then a 30mm is the way to go . They have much better computer control now, and interface with a ships full fire control system and sensors such as infrared and air search. Even then a ‘River class’ would seem too big, a proper estuarine patrol boat or launch would be far better , and could be carried by the mother ship. The US uses them in the Gulf for screening of large ships as they arrive or leave the busy harbours where the risk is highest. Could form a component of the RM who do fleet force protection, more suited to their training than gate guard duties, and they could buy and operate the ‘launches’ as an extension of their existing craft, which they are more familiar with . Naval officers might think they are too grand for launch sized boats
Yet no mention of the decline in shore establishments – where they have days with no heating or hot water. Where civilian staff work in thick fleeces as it is so cold. Where meals are on paper plates. Where it takes 20 working days to unblock a toilet or change a lightbulb. This is not looking after the people who subsequently defend our nation on any of the ships or subs around the world.
Thank you for your good work. It is inspiring the efforts you and other defence commentators go to. These are interesting times for the UK armed forces. I hope we are finally coming to the end of the post cold war decline. In the next few years we will hopefully see some consistency in the budgets and manning levels or a ‘new normal’ for the armed forces.
Have a happy New year!
THE ISSUE in 2020 will be the SDSR. Now if you look at the mood music this could be savage for the RN. The ministers involved are all army types and of course there is Cummings who seems to have a pathological hatred of all things originated by Labour ministers. Post Cold War we decided we needed an expeditionary capability in order to help enforce the rule of international law around the world alongside our allies (the carriers were very much part of this). Now, with the upsurge in Russian activity in and around our waters, this could change. I can see the politicians arguing for the emphasis to change to anti-submarine warfare which means frigates and submarines. This could be at the cost of our shiny new carriers and any ability we have to launch amphibious forces (Albion & Bulwark as well as the RMs). In short we could end up with a John Knott round two set of cuts.
This would be, of course, a huge mistake and probably end up costing us more in the long run. I do hope that the RN top brass can make the case for maintaining our expeditionary capabilities.
Thank you for an infomative journal. Good luck in 2020 and I hope God blesses the Royal Navy.
Thanks for all your work keeping the navy in focus, hope you have a good new year.
Given recent comments about Tide Class vessels leaning again the wharf, this makes interesting reading – https://www.defense-aerospace.com/articles-view/release/3/208550/norwegian-navy’s-new-fleet-oiler-‘maud’-stuck-in-port-as-%27unsafe%27.html
Well this tit for tat between the Americans & Iranians seems to be getting worse. I think No 10 will have to scrap any cuts to T26/31 numbers they may have been planning for SDSR 2020.