A year in review – The Royal Navy in 2023

In this article we look back at the past year, summarising key events and the achievements of the Royal Navy while considering future challenges.

Global events

2023 has been a difficult year for the RN in many ways although it has continued to deliver on operations and has been able to mount a limited response to fast-moving global events. The war in Ukraine continues unabated but there has been a noticeable reduction in interest amongst Western media and signs of weakening political support in some capitals. Failure to drive the Russians from Ukraine and bring about the fall of Putin will almost certainly result in another more dangerous future conflict in Europe. At least in the Black Sea the Russian Fleet has suffered continuous setbacks and Ukraine is managing to deliver some of its vital food exports by sea.

UK/French-made Storm Shadow air-launched cruise missiles have been successfully used by Ukraine in the destruction of a submarine and two landing ships in harbour. While this was a stunning success, it highlights the vulnerability of UK infrastructure and naval ports to a similar kind of attack for which there is virtually no defence. Ex-HMS Grimsby and HMS Shoreham have been transferred to the Ukrainian Navy with the RN providing mine warfare training for sailors. For now, there seems little prospect these ships will be allowed to enter the Black Sea. The Royal Marines have also trained at least 1,000 Ukrainian commandos with these skills employed to good effect in riverine operations and around the Crimean Peninsula.

The UK Carrier Strike group carried out an autumn deployment in the Norwegian and North Sea and visited Gothenburg, Sweden for NATO and JEF-related defence engagement. A good deal of flying training was packed into this modest 6-week trip and provided reassurance to European allies about the RN’s ability to help defend its eastern borders. The Prime Minister spent the night on board HMS Diamond ahead of the JEF summit in Finland, the first premier to stay on a warship in several generations. HMS Queen Elizabeth ended her trip by embarking additional munitions stocks at Glen Mallan as she remains at very high readiness and is well prepared, should she be called on for urgent tasking in the new year.

After several years of relative peace, the Middle East has once again become a focus of operations. In May HMS Lancaster was deployed from her base in the Gulf to Port Sudan and together with Royal Marines based in Khartoum, helped assist British citizens and those from partner nations escape as a raging civil war broke out. When Hamas attacked Israel on 7th October, the new Littoral Response Group (South) comprising RFA Argus and RFA Lyme Bay was just preparing to leave the UK bound for long-term basing in Oman. Instead they were hurriedly despatched to the eastern Mediterranean for a possible civilian evacuation or humanitarian aid operation. At the time of writing this rather sketchy plan appears to have been abandoned. At least the LRG(S) concept provided the right kind of vessels in the right place at the right time and HMS Duncan was also well-placed should a response have been needed.

While naval vessels in the Levant remain on high alert, the Red Sea has become the centre of attention as Iranian-backed Houthi rebels have begun to mount indiscriminate attacks on merchant shipping. So far the US Navy has done the heavy lifting destroying multiple drones and missiles, many ships have been hit but remarkably there have been no fatalities amongst merchant sailors so far. HMS Diamond made headlines on 16th December by shooting down a drone with a Sea Viper missile. This was the first RN combat use of Sea Viper and the first time an RN warship has destroyed an aerial target in anger since HMS Gloucester shot down a Silkworm anti-ship missile during the first Gulf War of 1991. With HMS Diamond on hand and HMS Lancaster not far away, the UK was quick to join US-led operation Prosperity Guardian (OPG) intended to protect merchant vessels.

Some shipping companies have resumed transits of the Red Sea but OPG is struggling because so few navies are willing to put their warships under US command. European politicians who should know better are worried their public will conflate support for upholding freedom of navigation in the Red Sea with support for Israel. Ensuring the safe passage of ships through maritime choke points is in the interest of everyone as the free movement of shipping is key to the global economy and is ultimately of greater direct consequence than what may be happening in Israel.

A peripheral conflict of concern is brewing in the Commonwealth nation of Guyana in South America. In a classic case of distracting the population from economic chaos at home, President of Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro has claimed the oil and mineral-rich Essequibo region of Guyana as their own. HMS Trent has been despatched to join naval exercises with Guyana in a low-key show of moral support but in a fit of pantomime outrage, the Venezuelans are claiming this to be “an act of hostile provocation”. In the past when the RN had a frigate or destroyer allocated to the Caribbean (Atlantic Patrol Task North) a more potent warship would have been available. HMS Dauntless was in the Caribbean and visited nearby Colombia earlier this year but only as a one-off deployment and a lightly armed OPV is usually assigned to the region.

HMS Trent cannot be risked facing down even the feeble Venezuelan navy so her presence is more symbolic than of military significance. The OPVs provide a very useful diplomatic platform, showing the flag and building relationships at low cost but lack the deterrence offered by a more heavily armed warship when the stakes may be higher. Hopefully, the Essequibo dispute will be resolved by diplomatic means and international pressure will see Maduro quietly accept the absurdity of his claim.

Three points of concern

Three particular issues have had an increasingly noticeable impact on RN operations and effectiveness. (1) The most serious problem that the RN must face right now is the personnel crisis that has accelerated this year. While retaining enough qualified and experienced people has long been a difficult and complex challenge, the apparently simpler aspect of the personnel equation is recruiting yet the RN is now failing to get enough applicants into basic training. If high outflow is paired with low inflow, the RN will soon start to grind to a halt as operations are curtailed, deployments have to be over-extended or ships cannot sail at all. Without a very concerted and well-resourced effort to grip this situation, there will be major problems in 2024 and beyond, foreshadowed by what has happened to the Royal Fleet Auxiliary which has already been forced to lay up good ships for lack of sailors.

(2) This year we have reported on multiple examples of poor availability of warships and submarines, caused by the age of platforms, the slow pace of maintenance and various infrastructure issues. With the decommissioning of HMS Montrose in April, officially frigate numbers declined to 11. In reality this is actually 10 as HMS Westminster is now in such a poor state that she is not worth refitting, although the RN has not yet officially admitted this to be the case. HMS Northumberland was last refitted in 2018 has been run hard in the last few years. She is only slightly younger than Westminster and one must also wonder about her material state.

HMS Somerset emerged from a 4-year life extension refit, only to suffer a series of setbacks and breakdowns that restricted her return to service and delayed the acceptance of the Naval Strike Missile. The youngest of the frigates, HMS St Albans is only the second of the class to benefit from both a LIFEX refit and the PGMU (engine upgrade). This project has taken more than 3 ½ years and she has not yet put to sea although she should begin sea trials in early 2024. HMS Iron Duke’s refit was completed in May having cost £100M and taken 4 years but she has spent most of 2023 alongside in Portsmouth. The RN is now deep into a ‘frigate gap’ where the ageing Type 23s have to be kept going awaiting replacement by new ships, arguably the RN’s most pressing medium-term worry.

As had been long-planned, HMS Albion went into reserve in the Summer yet HMS Bulwark, the vessel that should be ready to take her place, is still in dry dock and a long way from returning to operations. Less than 5 years old, HMS Trent was unavailable for deployment for a year between May 2022 – May 23 due to various mechanical issues.

The Submarine Service has also been badly hit. This year HMS Vanguard finally put to sea after a refit lasting a whopping 7 years and in the mean time, deterrent patrol lengths have increased with one boat underwater for more than 6 months. HMS Anson was formally commissioned in August 2022 and left the shipyard in February 2023 but has spent most of this year conducting sea trials and has yet to deploy operationally. During the Summer there were several days with no SSNs at sea at all and this situation appears to have been repeated over the Christmas period.

(3) The inability to bring new technologies to the frontline fast enough is now a major point of concern. The RN is certainly attempting to innovate and has made some progress with the PODS concept, the MANTA/CETUS XLUUV projects, XV Patrick Blackett and autonomous mine hunting and MDG capabilities. Unfortunately, the pace of upgrading the fleet is not remotely fast enough. Events in Ukraine and now in the Red Sea have again demonstrated that low-cost, relatively simple uncrewed systems can be effective or at least only be countered using exquisite and expensive weapons that are in short supply. Although the Martlet missile and Wildcat helicopter combination is finally in service and is a major step in the right direction, RN vessels lack enough hard-kill capabilities to counter swarms of USVs or UAVs.

As an example, even introducing a very simple uncrewed ISR asset in the form of the Peregrine RWUAS has been a drawn out process. The base Schiebel S-100 camcopter platform has been around for more than a decade yet the RN has taken years to get this relatively cheap but effective ‘low-hanging fruit’ into the hands of operators. In 2023 two new ships joined the Naval Service, RFA Proteus (MROS) and RFA Stirling Castle (MHC mothership). This was a great ‘good news story’ with both being acquired relatively rapidly and eventually putting to sea after conversion. Unfortunately neither ship was actually ready to be employed in its intended role this year, despite official pronouncements, another example of the inability to actually deliver at pace.

Besides the obvious budget issues, the root causes are institutional inertia in both the Navy and the MoD. There is over-regulation due to an excessive aversion to risk and unwillingness to bypass frameworks based on a peacetime civilian mindset. A lack of engineers and technical staff both in industry and the RN does not help.

At the other end of the capability spectrum, the moves to increase the fleet’s firepower is also dismally slow. After a 10 years of dithering about the Harpoon replacement, NSM should finally enter service next year. The addition of Sea Ceptor to the Type 45 destroyers is still some years away and although is is great news Type 31 will be fitted with Mk41 VLS cells along with the Type 26 frigates, industry insiders are highly sceptical that the FCASW missile can be ready to fill those cells by 2028.

Outlook

One major positive for the RN is that the shipbuilding programme is broadly on track to start delivering new frigates in the late 2020s. Work on the first Type 31 frigate HMS Venturer is progressing well and only marginally behind the original schedule with work on ship two also underway. The steel work is the more straightforward aspect of the project and it is the fitting out and systems integration that will be the biggest challenge for Babcock. Four type 26 frigates are now in various stages of build with steel having been cut for ship 4, HMS Birmingham this year. A new construction hall at BAE Systems yard in Govan is well on its way towards completion next year and will help accelerate the later phase of the programme. Almost out of public sight, one of the most complex engineering projects underway the UK right now – building the 4 Dreadnought class submarines is making steady progress. Although taking around twice the time it took to build the preceding Vanguard class, the project appears to be keeping to the stated schedule.

The National Audit Office report on the MoD Equipment Plan published in December provides a dose of cold reality about future aspirations. RN capabilities not yet funded in the 2022-32 EP include, the Type 32 frigates, Multi Role Support Ships, Type 83 destroyers / FADS, Mine Hunting Capability Block 1 and Block 2 equipment support and aspects of Blocks 2 and 3 Future Commando equipment. These funding hurdles must all be navigated in the next few years or the fleet will be further gutted. In the near-medium term the NAO notes that increased global demand for defence equipment, supply chain problems, shortage of materials and skills gaps are causing industry capacity constraints making delivering projects within existing schedules and budgets more difficult.

The current government seems to be drifting towards a general election next year when most predict it will be roundly defeated. It is therefore especially important to pay attention to Labour’s comments on defence matters in the next few months and their manifesto pledges. Banging the drum about ‘only building warships in the UK’ and ‘using British steel’ may play well with the Unions but is tinkering at the edge. In reality a very significant increase in defence spending is needed urgently but that does not appear to be likely under a new government. In terms of the ‘mood music’ the main point of strategic difference between the parties appears to be that Labour is less enthusiastic about the UK’s ‘Indo-Pacific tilt’ and may attempt to reduce this commitment, although Japanese GCAP involvement and AUKUS will make it hard to walk back on this. There is no shortage of failures to be laid at the feet of the Tories but unless Labour are going to commit new resources following a likely defence review in 2025, expect further managed decline in an ever-more dangerous world.