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Gunbuster

BALTOPS Brrrrr….. Especially this time of year.
If covid wasn’t an ongoing issue the runs ashore would have been EPIC . The smaller Baltic nations are a great place to visit

X

Some nice pic’s of ‘flying fish’ and SWATH’s. 🙂

Meirion X

Yes, and the Baltic is a lot calmer sea!

X

It was an unusual choice. Unless the Germans eased the way.

Supportive Bloke

The photos are beautiful.

But it does make you think that these countries do depend on their friends and neighbours for security.

You look at the Lithuanian flagship and it makes a T23 look super heavily armed.

X

But it does make you think that these countries do depend on their friends and neighbours for security.

The whole of Europe west of the Russian border depends on the USA for security.

Last edited 4 months ago by X
Supportive Bloke

Interesting that Lancaster is there in flagship role.

Previously I was always told that T23 didn’t have the space on board to be flagship?

Hence why T22 or T45 were used for that role: I appreciate that UK T22 doesn’t exist anymore.

Challenger

I think you’re correct. Maybe it’s a case of best worst choice to use a T23 as flagship for a short period. I imagine they’d be wholly unsuitable if there was a need to embark a senior officers staff and undertake serious planning.

Bob

No Harpoon 🙁

borg

Whale hunting is not on the agenda.

Tosh

It’s a sorry state of affairs when they get sent out without an anti-ship missile.

Supportive Bloke

Why would you put something on the ship to receive more salt water attrition when it can sit in a nice humidity controlled warehouse?

Who are they going to be shooting at?

Ok with T23/45 it is obvious when they are not wearing their AShM because the canisters are removed leaving the bedstead in place.

With a Mk41 VLS, or similar, you don’t know what is inside as the lids are shut. Probably less than you think on US ships.

I suppose the answer to not advertising this is to put empty canisters in their place?

borg

The first pic if taken in isolation, would make you believe they were of a similar size.
3rd pic shows the true scale.

Last edited 4 months ago by borg
X

It’s the bridge windows I am sure that the eye uses for scale. Same happens when you see a T45, It looks normal because you scale it on the windows. And then you see it next to a T23 and the latter is tiny.

X

It looks good. But the Russians aren’t coming.

Meirion X

With the Putin regime under domestic pressure, just like the 1982 Argentine milltary regime. A solution to a regime’s domestic troubles, is a popular war to rally the people behind the regime. A ways of means to distract attention from unpopularity.
In other words, a big risky gamble!
The coming months would be the time for Putin to take a gamble!

Last edited 4 months ago by Meirion X
David

I do not disagree with you Meirion BUT with the current COVID pandemic, Govts are using their vaccine role out as a diversion from the truth and reality… and one Govt much closer to home…

Supportive Bloke

I’m afraid I agree a ‘small regional conflict’ is likely.

As in ‘82 it could actually be the death sentence for the regime.

The other scenario is the power struggle when Putin goes, for whatever reason, getting messy.

X

Why? What would Russia gain? Nothing.

Duker

Yes. Compared to the French ( Napoleon I and III) and the Germans, the Russians only came as far as the Elbe and that was because of ‘special circumstances, normally its only as far as the Vistula

X

All your post says to me is that you have no understanding of the depth of Russian forces or modern Russian society.

One of the great failings of a site like this is to apply broad stroke examples from the past to support outrageous plans in the present.

Meirion X

You don’t really need to be a expert on Russian society, to see from alternative media reports of a lot of discontent there lately. And with the economy not doing well at all, and western sanctions on top, with more to come. I do follow the alternative media there, but Not the propaganda outlets!

X

Russians aren’t going to invade Western Europe. Why would they do it? And don’t say a distraction because for that to be viable there has to be some believable goal and there isn’t one.

Russia is doing all it can to disconnect itself from the West. What does the West actually offer Russia? Land? They don’t need it. Resources? They have them. Wholesome societies? We are on the verge of collapse. Why would they come? Why would they risk a war that could go nuclear? Is there economy doing that badly? Better or worse than ours or any other one in the West? Sanctions have done nothing. Sanctions never really do do anything. (Something I believed before I spent an autumn and a winter in the uni’ library writing a paper on ‘sanctions’.)

You are very off with this. Very off.

Last edited 4 months ago by X
Meirion X

Some of the sanctions are having an effect. Take the US block on the Nordstream Gas pipeline to Germany, No company will now work on it any more, it is only half built.
A Southern Gas pipeline to Bulgaria is now being blocked. So both sanctioned pipelines will result in Russia losing billions of Dollars of revenues. Surely this will have an effect on the economy?

Last edited 4 months ago by Meirion X
Meirion X

The Southern pipeline runs under the Black Sea from Southern Russia to Bulgaria and a spar to Turkey.

Duker

Those sanctions on the Nordstream project are illegal, not that the US would follow any ruling against them.
Its hardly something US is even connected to , especially when you consider how much Russian gas via tanker is arriving regularly at the terminal for UK in Wales
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/merkel-says-u-s-nord-stream-sanctions-not-legally-justifiable-1.1459252

David

It has already been stated that a local action by Russian forces could help to reunify Russian society, albeit for a brief time frame.

It would not go nuclear.

Where?
Riga, Latvia, where 55% +/- of the populace are Russian and Putin enjoys widespread support in all age groups.

What could NATO do about it? Absolutely nothing.

Other potential outcomes?
Dissolution of NATO as it finds that for all its bombast, it is actually a toothless tiger.

X

Isn’t going to happen.

If the European countries of NATO gave two hoots about the organisation and their defence then they would pay more than 2% and would take defence seriously.

Supportive Bloke

Their economy is a basket case.

With the demand for oil very low for the last year, due to global lockdown, coffers will have been drained.

With EV only dates looming in a lot of Europe demand for petal/diesel is only going to drop as the first cars to be electrified will be the company ones that are the high milers and use most of the fuel.

It is only oil/gas that has kept Russia economically going.

Their economy cannot adapt and grow because of the incredible levels of kleptocracy that are strangling it. It is exactly the same thing as taking too much tax, taking too much money out of any company strangles investment cash: that is exactly where most Russian companies are now they can’t get shady soft loans from western banks.

Most western companies won’t do JV’s with Russian companies because they know that the JV is likely to be expropriated whenever it suits anyone powerful in Russia.

With an aging Putin and the economy crumbling expect trouble at some point.

X

Oh……..

Mick

I would respectfully suggest that you learn more about energy. Wind turbines, solar panels and batteries will not support a modern industrialized society with anything remotely resembling a standard of living like that at present. Batteries are just a store of energy that is far less dense than diesel, petrol, jet fuel etc. It’s true that a certain percentage of cars may be electrified, however if you look at trucking, to get a similar amount of performance to a diesel equivalent then that battery needs to weigh almost the same as the entire current cargo capacity. You also need to consider where electricity will come from at night when the wind is not blowing.

Unfortunately not everything can be electrified, you need fossil fuels to get the heat high enough to smelt certain metals, use in transport, agriculture etc.

Unfortunately Europe is likely to learn the hard way that the EU and UK need Russia far more than they need us. As north sea oil/gas declines, dependency on outside sources such as Russia and middle eastern countries is only going to increase. You need energy to run a modern industrial economy including, transport, factories and even the military itself.

If Russia halted exports of raw materials such as oil, gas etc. it’s likely that the affect on western europe would be very severe. I’m sure they have problems with covid but it’s extremely nieve to think that these impacts are not being felt in the UK and EU. If anything, sanctions appear to be making Russia more self-sufficient and less in need of having a good relationship with us.

Meirion X

Surplus wind and solar energy can be, converted and stored as Hydrogen, or stored in batteries.
And transported as well.

Also artificial gas can be produced from alternative energy sources. We used to make gas from coal in the past!

Last edited 4 months ago by Meirion X
Mick

Yes, they can – at greater than 10x the cost if you are talking about electrolysis to make hydrogen from wind and solar.

RobB

After spending 100’s of billions euros on its energy transition, a grand total of 6% of Germanys energy comes from wind and solar. Take a look at how much energy comes from oil and gas. Replacing that with renewables is never going to happen.

comment image?itok=-6aXzfF_

Mick

Exactly right, this is the reason they are investing in a large natural gas import pipeline from Russia – wind and solar are not making much difference and if anything import dependency is likely to rise with the shutdown of nuclear power stations.

You need energy to run factories etc. without imports of oil and gas, most functions of advanced society in western Europe would need to shut down. Like I said, Western Europe probably needs Russia far more than they need Western Europe.

Meirion X

Yes it was disappointing and a mistake that Germany shutdown nuclear power stations over the last decade. Nuclear energy is needed is provide a better energy mix.
The transition to alternative energy sources will take time, as new tech becomes available.
This is not just the issue of imported energy dependency. It is the issue of energy based on Hydrocarbons accordingly to science. And with Biden having rejoined the Paris Climate Accords, this will be the direction will we going.

Germany needs to be thankful for US block on Nordstream, because this will help the transition to alternative energy sources under the Paris Accords.

Last edited 4 months ago by Meirion X
Andy a

Then why does this show Germany at nearly 50% renewable.

RobB

I dont know what you’re referring to, as the chart above says 16.8% renewable, but it could be that your source refers to electricity, rather than total energy. E.g. Electricity wouldnt contribute much to road transport which is using alot of energy.

Meirion X

Don’t forget, that the majority of Natural Gas used is for electricity generation.
It has displaced coal over the past few decades and alternatives will eventually also displace gas as well at a much quicker rate.

Meirion X

The replacement of a significant
proportion of hydrocarbon fuels, is going to happen under the Paris Climate Accords over the next few decades anyway. Including the banning of petrol and diesel engines in cars and vans by 2030. Solutions for lorries will come later.
I seen new proposals of capturing blue solar light in space, and transmitting the energy down to Earth.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottsnowden/2019/03/12/solar-power-stations-in-space-could-supply-the-world-with-limitless-energy/?sh=79253d7e4386

Mick

Yes, if the US, EU and UK follow through with Biden’s plans they are looking at a much smaller economy and shut down of most functions of industrial society. A barrel of oil contains the energy equivalent of 4.5 years of human labour. It is the most practical and dense form of energy that we have ever discovered. This is why the Royal Navy now runs on oil and no longer on wind. It’s possible that new technology may be invented, however technology requires energy to operate. Energy cannot be created or destroyed, this is the first law of thermodynamics.

RobB

Its just as easy for a politician sign a non-binding accord as it is to promise 12 T45’s or 138 F35B’s. Later on, financial and technical realities have to be faced.

Andy a

I’m no energy expert but the figures I just looked up show Germany as generating 60% of its energy from renewables

X

Just energy? He needs to do a lot more research about practically everything.

Trevor H

No. They have annexed the crimea, attacked Georgia and Ukraine. They have ethic Russians in the Baltics. It suits them to ferment unrest.

Our interests are to deter Russian hegemony.

Duker

The International Court said in its Kosovo decision that declaring independence ( 2012) is legal even when in Kosovos case the government was installed and protected by Nato troops since 1998.
Crimea which was a semi autonomous republic/province of Ukraine with its own government [ Sevastopol was a sovereign base much like UK has on Cyprus or US at Guantanamo, but thats a different issue] declared Independence as its allowed to do under international law. A referendum amoungst its almost entirely ethnic Russian population meant they acceded to Russia as an autonomous republic.
Plenty of countries have declared independence from their governing power, why the sudden pearl clutching over this.
US invaded Iraq with UK assistance, Turkey invaded its neighbour Cyprus, none with UN authorization either.
The worlds oceans are littered with islands that were annexed for convenience by the great powers or lessor powers that would ordinarily be a part of their nearest neighbours
Australia has control of Christmas Island in Indian ocean inspite of it being 350km from Java and 1500km to Australia. There are others in the Caribbean that belong to US for no real reason and are uninhabited.
Yes , I know which side, the west, Im happy to align with but lets not confuse propaganda with facts

Meirion X

Was it not the case of Christmas Island the British, took control in 1880s.
Then given to Australia to admin.
So finders first, keepers.

Last edited 4 months ago by Meirion X
Duker

Nope . Look it up, was part of the Colony of Singapore and ‘sold’ to Australia in 1960s.
However the British control was for what reasons ?
It was strategic having no connection to Singapore otherwise.

Meirion X

Singapore was still simi-independent at the time of transfer in 1958, when Christmas Island was handed over to Australia which gave compensation of $20M for the loss of earnings from phosphate mining to Singapore.
Most likely the UK pulled the strings for the handover to Australia.
It looks they got a bargain!

Last edited 4 months ago by Meirion X
X

Oh……………

Colonel Foster

I think Vlad ‘The Spider’ Putin is several moves ahead. How do Dictators relinquish power? Popular uprising and/or assassination, death in office? He has a different endgame, that’s why he annexed Crimea and has connected the area by bridge. He also has his €2 Billion Euro retirement palace ready to go with underground Ice Hockey rink. Governor of Crimea with the Black Sea Fleet to protect him? Oh, and a puppet president in Moscow with Putin pulling the strings as is his way.
Possibly.

Trevor H

It’s called deterrence you dumbell.

X

Deterrence for the UK is CASD.

Meirion X

@Mr Knowall
You need not just one level of deterrence, but of different levels, including conventional deterrence.
Otherwise you will end up threating to use the ultimate deterrence for just minor infringements.

Last edited 4 months ago by Meirion X
X

Sometimes I think my degree in IR is useless. You guys know everything. I should have come here instead.

Meirion X

We most likely are of wisdom!